美股为何暴跌，逐句说明美联储主席年度最“鹰”发言

的过剩等，这又反过来影响到在经济上蓬勃发展的停滞开放性，提不够高财政新政策面临“零物价赴援下线”理论上的近十年开放性。所以，奥斯本勉强考虑财政新政策的调配现象。非典型肺炎首当其冲的角度看在于，大量医疗保健者退出了医疗保健全队，劳务参与赴援随之下挫，这使得官方出生赴援很大很高估了打算像临时工相对于和临时工洞口。后非典型肺炎时代，被很高估的出生赴援和医疗保健零售商的“K型式蓬勃发展”外观上沦为奥斯本退出更为规新政策的“本来”。

4. Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

回复价钱有利于还需长时间段，这需我们充份地运用财政新政策来进行，使期望和供应不够好地平衡。为了攀升通涨，在经济上经济总量或许在长时间段内但会停滞很高于潜在增速。而且，医疗保健零售商原因很或许但会稍稍弱化。物价赴援的攀升、在经济上经济总量的减慢和医疗保健零售商的渐入佳境都但会攀升通涨，但也但会给父母亲和跨国公司造成了一些苦恼。这些都是攀升通涨碰巧的代价。如果不能构建价钱有利于，重大损失但会不够致使。

审定：供不应求是也就是说通涨的成因，财政新政策勉强依赖性于期望，故勉强通过松弛期望强力通涨。托马斯遵从了强力通涨但会不惜牺牲短期在经济上增长的确实，但凸显这是“两害相使用权取其轻”，算是在为后文做开篇。

5. The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.

相对于2021年近代最不够高相对于的在经济上增速而言——体现了大大行其道首当其冲后的在经济上中止，加拿大在经济上增长赴援开始突出减慢。虽然同类型的在经济上数据资料并不一定正和，但无疑，我们的在经济上在此便依然着强劲的动能。医疗保健零售商更是强劲，但它毕竟是失衡的，对铁路工人的期望大大超过了需用铁路工人的供应。物价赴援远不够高于2%，不够高物价赴援在此便在在经济上中会蔓延。尽管7同月通涨数据资料攀升了，这令人欣慰，但单个同月的攀升还远缺乏以使委员但会确信通涨的简而言之从未消失。

审定：如何才能让FOMC确信通涨的简而言之从未确立了？这是分析的这两项，毕竟，7同月单同月的小幅折返是不满足条件的。自已确信，既要追捧通涨的相对于，也要追捧结构上、建模的方向和波动赴援。

6. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection's (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.

我们但会确保一个有限财政新政策的新政策态度，以使物价攀升到2%的相对于。在7同月的但全体会议上，FOMC将美国联邦政府基金会物价赴援的能够折返上调至2.25 - 2.5%，这是在经济上得出结论摘要（SEP）对近十年美国联邦政府基金会物价赴援折返的估计（未收：即中会开放性物价赴援折返）。迄今为止的外观上确实是，通涨远不够高于2%，且医疗保健零售商极为尴尬。所以，还不是停止或中会止加息的时候。

审定：加息问道明财政新政策愈发放宽，但一般而言是过紧（或偏紧），只要FFR很高于中会开放性物价赴援，就可以确信财政新政策还处于宽泛折返。可将FOMC季度得出结论（SEP）中会关于FFR的近十年得出结论视为中会开放性物价赴援，2022年6同月的同类型得出结论为2.5%，等于7同月加息后FFR能够折返的上限。这并一般而言，9同月加息后，财政新政策才从偏松转向偏紧。非典型肺炎便，数据资料噪声较少，一个较为相比较的观念确信，对中会开放性物价赴援的估计长期存在较少的误差，以至于纽约联储都中会止对内公开发表模型式的同类型得出结论结果。技术性会，需用加拿大外债时限结构上来计量财政新政策的松紧往往，类似于的测试方法有：3个同月国库券与10年外债的时限利差（3M-10Y）、1年外债与10年外债利差（1Y-10Y）或2年外债与10年外债利差（2Y-10Y）。三个测试方法的稍为基本一致。3M-10Y与另外两个测试方法短期或许消失背离，但迟早但会正数。

7. July's increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.

7同月是去年第二次加息75个基点，我之前问道，再来一次毫无疑问未收意的随之度的加息或许是恰当的。我们现在据估计从未过了休但会期的一半。9同月例但会的立即将取决于获得的全部数据资料和不断演变的前景。在某个时点，随着财政新政策的态度全面放宽，减慢加息的步伐或许是恰当的。

审定：“某个时点”的未确定主要取决于奥斯本是否确认通涨正要未确定地朝着2%能够正数。奥斯本内部的研究成果职员一般但会给一个得出结论的通涨方向，FOMC领导者但会融合医疗保健等基本面文档的得出结论，反推不同时点恰当的财政新政策态度。当然，后非典型肺炎时代得出结论更为不靠谱，FOMC也勉强将这一点考虑进来。

8. Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants' most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.

回复房价有利于或许（还）需在长时间段内依然财政新政策的新政策态度。近代的更进一步对过早地放松新政策提出了强力警告。6同月的SEP推测，FOMC领导者得出结论到2023年底美国联邦政府基金会物价赴援的中会位数略很高于4%。FOMC将在9同月的但全体会议上不够新他们的得出结论。

审定：正如我在都对7同月但全体会议纪要中会问道的，奥斯本首先是担忧财政新政策缺乏，其次才是财政新政策极度。

9. Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.

我们对财政新政策的审议和权衡基于我们从二十世纪七八十世纪末的不够高且不有利于的通涨以及只不过四分之一世纪的很高而有利于的通涨中会对通涨的认识。毫无疑问凸显的是，我们吸取了三个最主要教训：

10. The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1 Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed's tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve's responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.

第一个教训是，央行能够且不应肩负起构建很高而有利于的通涨的法律责任。回看近代，以前还需问道服中会央银行家们和其他人遵从并一般而言似乎有些好奇，但正如前名誉主席本·伯南克所问道明的那样，这两个提倡在大通涨时期都受到了广为的严厉批评。今天，这些问题从未解决了。保证价钱有利于，我们责无旁贷。的确，迄今为止的不够高通涨是一个世界性现象，许多在经济上体都面临着不够高通涨首当其冲，有的国家政府甚至比加拿大还要不够高。无疑，加拿大迄今为止的不够高通涨也是强劲的期望和一般来说的依靠协同的结果。奥斯本的来进行主要针对总期望。但这不但会削弱奥斯本肩负保证价钱有利于任务的法律责任。毕竟，我们需做的是消除期望，使其与供应不够好地匹配。我们正致力于此。

审定：对内安抚零售商、对政府，对内构建坚强，给小三人打气。

11. The second lesson is that the public's expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.

第二个教训是，对政府对期望通涨的意味著可以在通涨的期望西起层面造就最主要依赖性。自觉，从许多测试方法来看，近十年通涨意味著的“拖曳”还在。对父母亲、跨国公司和得出结论机构的调查报告，以及基于零售商的计量标准，约略都是如此。但这不是自满的可能，通涨远不够高于我们的能够从未有长时间段了。

审定：通涨意味著在停滞不够高通涨的逐步形成流程中会至关最主要。也就是说，加拿大的短期通涨意味著突出不够高于近十年——通涨的时限结构上是惯常的，这是奥斯本还能够在一定往往上去平衡短期与近十年能够的可能。有利于的通涨意味著能为财政新政策新加坡政府备有不够多跨期也就是说权衡的空间，即不以短期能够而不惜牺牲中会近十年能够。无论如何，通涨意味著越好不有利于，拖曳定通涨意味著的成本就越好不够高，也就越好承诺本国货币新加坡政府对短期的首当其冲做出不够积极的响应，而这或许承诺不惜牺牲近十年能够。

12. If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decision-making of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, "Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations."

如果对政府意味著通涨将在长时间段内依然在很高且有利于的相对于上，那么，在从未重大事件首当其冲的不必要下，具体不必要很或许也但会如此。碰巧的是，对于不够高且不有利于的通涨意味著也但会自我构建。二十世纪70世纪末，随着通涨的攀升，对不够高通涨的意味著在父母亲和跨国公司的在经济上权衡中会变得根深蒂固。物价赴援越好不够高，人们就越好意味著它还但会依然在不够很高位，他们把这种信念填充在薪酬和价位权衡上。正如前奥斯本名誉主席保罗•沃尔克在1979年通涨达到顶峰时问道的，“通涨在一定往往上是自我对系统的，因此，要打算回复一个不够有利于、生产赴援不够不够高的在经济上，勉强将一部分积蓄放在控制通涨意味著上。”

审定：通涨意味著但会自我构建。本国货币新加坡政府之所以追捧通涨意味著，可能是它对价位不道德的影响，包括房价和薪酬，以及并不一定的正对系统的关系。当意味著通涨居不够高不下时，劳务者一般但会承诺不够不够高的薪酬，或指数化的薪酬立即机制，比如与生活成本（Cost-of-Living Adjustment，COLA）挂钩。当跨国公司意味著到特质成本长期存在上行首当其冲时，但会根据平均分配能力和商家的期望价钱优点的大小选取将一部分成本转嫁给客户，从而逐步形成“薪酬-房价棒状”。这是20世纪70世纪末“大滞胀”逐步形成的最主要可能。薪酬立即的是通涨的急遽，而非波动。“薪酬-房价棒状”一旦逐步形成，通涨意味著就扶拖曳了。是本国货币新加坡政府最不情愿遭遇的生存环境。薪酬和房价都是有粘开放性的，“薪酬-房价棒状”的逐步形成有较不够高的前置条件，比如尴尬的医疗保健零售商、较不够高的集体谈判使用权、宽泛的财政新政策、较不够高的中会近十年通涨意味著等。“大消除”时代以来，零售商和新政策提出者都习惯了通涨意味著有利于或长期存在通涨洞口的宏观生存环境，忘却了“薪酬-通涨棒状”的不确定性。直到2022年7同月例但会，FOMC依然回应“薪酬-通涨棒状”是通涨的一个成因，当然这也是零售商的深思熟虑，但不可回应不确定性正要积聚。

13. One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention."3 When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: "For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions."4

关于具体通涨或许但会怎样影响人们对其期望西起的意味著，一个感兴趣的洞见构建在“道德忽视”的概念上。当物价停滞不够高企时，父母亲和跨国公司勉强密不可分追捧并将物价纳入他们的在经济上权衡。当物价处于很高位且有利于时，他们可以不够意志地将未收意力以外在其他大多。前奥斯本名誉主席怀特·格林斯潘这样问道:“从具体角度来看，价钱有利于并一般而言大约价钱相对于的意味著变异有限地小，有限地平滑，它们不但会进一步地影响跨国公司和父母亲的金融服务权衡。”

审定：都是“道德忽视”，就是未收意不到通涨的长期存在，不将其纳入到金融服务、在经济上权衡不道德中会，例如：不承诺债使用权人不好求不够不够高的通涨补偿收益赴援，劳务者不承诺不够不够高的薪酬、跨国公司不指定不够不够高的房价等。

14. Of course, inflation has just about everyone's attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

当然，迄今为止仅仅许多人都在追捧通涨，这凸显了一种特殊的不确定性：不够高通涨停滞的时间段越好长，对通涨攀升的意味著变得不够加根深蒂固的或许开放性就变大。

15. That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.

这就引出了我的第三个教训，那就是我们勉强坚持下去，直到工作进行时。近代问道明，随着不够高通涨在薪酬和房价的制定中会变得不够加根深蒂固，攀升通涨的医疗保健成本或许但会随着时间段的推迟增加。二十世纪80世纪末初沃尔克抗通涨的成功是在此前15年多次攀升通涨的尝试失败便再次发生的。为了遏制不够高通涨，需近十年拒绝执行更为财政新政策的财政新政策，以将通涨减到很高而有利于的相对于——这是2021年春季之前的常态。我们的能够是通过现在果断的行动来可能会这样的结果（近十年试行财政新政策新政策）。

审定：坚定信心，谨防在通涨刚刚有点攀升的苗头，或者折返的急遽还不稳固的时候就解读转变财政新政策的新政策态度，以慎重考虑医疗保健/在经济上增长能够。

16. These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.

这些更进一步在导师我们使用我们的来进行来攀升物价。我们正要采取充份而短时间内的措施来抑制期望，使其不够好地与依靠依然一致，并有利于通涨意味著。我们将在此便奋斗，直到我们确信进行时了这项工作。

（文章仅均是由所作观念。责编电邮：yanguihua@Jiemian.com。）

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